Two weeks into the baseball season and already there are signs of new, upcoming players who will be fantasy baseball mainstays for years to come.
Unlike fantasy football where a terrible draft (your first 6 picks) can destroy your season, in fantasy baseball, your first 2-3 rounds are focused on the studs, while everyone else is mostly interchangeable parts. Have any of you seriously considered dropping Roy Oswalt? Those who do not learn from the past are destined to repeat it, and Oswalt’s strikeout totals have declined over the past 4 seasons, and in his first three starts this year, he’s been unabashedly horrendous.
“But Matt, I can’t drop Roy! I used a 5^th round pick on him!!”

And there in lies the difference between the winners in fantasy baseball and the losers. Obviously, Oswalt is a good pitcher, but he is at an age where pitchers start their decline. “Posh!” you say, and you may be right, but another thing to consider is that Oswalt has spent no time on the DL since 2003…maybe he’s due? Maybe he’s hurt right now and that’s why he’s pitching so poorly. He certainly has lost some life on his pitches and is not crisp with his delivery. I’m not saying you should drop him; you probably won’t get him back later if he turns it around. But you have to at least be cognizant of the idea.

Onto gems! And let’s not even leave Houston.

Gem #1 – Wandy Rodriguez, HOU SP: As I type this, Rodriquez is owned in only 1/3 of all ESPN fantasy leagues. I’ll ask: WHY? Are you better off with A.J. Burnett? Gil Meche? Or still holding out hope that Escobar returns (he’s not)? Rodriquez was a super prospect who has been downright ordinary since his debut in 2005 in terms of wins and ERA. However, I point to other stats that are more telling, such as this: 3.05 vs. 0.94. The first number is his BB/9 ratio for his first 3 seasons, and the later is from this year. Next: 5.6, 6.5, 7.8, 8.9 – what are those? KK/9, which has steadily been on the rise since 2005. Obviously a small sample size, but his KK/BB ratio is almost 10:1 so far this year. It was 2.55:1 last season, when he totaled 158 strikeouts in 182 innings. The most obvious thing is clear: even if Rodriquez starts getting hit a little more and his ERA climbs up a bit, he has lowered his BB totals so his WHIP will be acceptable, and HE’S A CHEAP SOURCE OF STRIKEOUTS. And a much better option for K’s than Todd Wellemeyer or Jonathan Sanchez (who are pitching way over their heads).

Gem #2 – Hiroki Kuroda, LAD SP: Kuroda has been snatched up in many a league recently. He’s own in 80% of ESPN leagues and chances are he’s owned in 2/3-3/4 of most other leagues as well. It’s definitely worth a look though to see if he’s available. As I spoke above about history, if you don’t learn from it, you’ll repeat it. Japanese pitchers have enjoyed success more often than failure when coming to the United States. Obviously there are busts (Irabu comes to mind), but Kuroda is a top-line pitcher which will translate nicely to playing his home games at Chavez Ravine in Los Angeles. He’s not going to blow you away with strikeouts, but you know you’re going to get a solid performance out of him more often than not.

Gem #3 – Billy Butler, KC DH/1B: Present roster trends show Butler on only 60% of ESPN leagues. This is probably due in large part to ESPN only allowing him DH eligibility, whereas at Yahoo, he has 1B eligibility also. Butler has hit safely in every game for the Royals this season and has posted an OBP of .449. His OPS of .926 is off the charts considering that he’s not really hitting for power yet. Once he starts driving the ball, Butler’s OPS could approve 1.000 territory. And one other note of roster trends: his % actually dropped by 1.4% from the previous week, which just shows you that there are some incredibly stupid people out there…probably people who’d rather have Garrett Anderson’s .689 OPS because, after all, he’s a name. People, WAKE UP! Garrett Anderson’s roster trend increased 7% from last week! What are these people looking at? He’s owned in almost the same number of leagues at Butler. (Anderson has posted an OBP of .350 or better only once in his 14 seasons, and only 3 times above .340)

Gem #4 – Ryan Doumit, PIT C/OF: Still waiting on Kenji Johjima to start hitting? Why not shelve him and pick up Doumit? Or better yet, if you have an under performing OF (like say, Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn, or if you’re a loser and still have Mike Cameron on your roster), drop them and pick up Doumit…then you’ll have a 4^th or 5^th OF on off days and a catcher as well. Position eligibility makes Doumit incredibly valuable, however only 40% of leagues show that he’s owned. Catching is not traditionally a strong fantasy position, but if you can get respectable numbers from your catcher, it makes your team that much more dangerous. Ronny Paulino has seen his playing time drastically reduced as Doumit is getting the majority of the games behind the dish (5 of 7). In limited playing time last year (252 AB), Doumit hit 9 home runs, hit .274, posted an OBP of .341 (great for a catcher), and had an OPS of .813. Why be saddled with Kurt Suzuki or wait around for Ramon Hernandez to do something? Pick up Doumit because chances are, he’s available.

Gem #5 – Yuniesky Betancourt, Sea SS: Only owned in 20% of leagues. If you’re saddled with Orlando Cabrera or simply want a better backup than Ryan Theriot, give Betancourt a whirl. He’s not flashy, he’s not an all-star, but as insurance, he’s respectable.

Gem #6 – Jake Westbrook, Cle SP: There are 150 starting pitchers in baseball. There are actually more than that when you factor in the amount of starters that gets shots during the year. So I’ll ask: why are you still running Joe Blanton, Francisco Liriano, Justin Verlander, Daniel Cabrera, Tom Gorzelanny, Gil Meche, Matt Morris, Kenny Rogers, Jon Lester, Shawn Chacon, and Dave Bush out there? Over Westbrook? C’mon people….He’s owned in 25% of leagues! Snap him up!

Odds & Ends

• If you can get someone to give you a whole lot for Mark Reynolds, take the offer. He’ll have a fine season, but he will not keep this pace up.
• Pay attention to the closer situations in Arizona, Atlanta and Chicago. Guys like Qualls, Pena, Moylan and Marmol have increasing value when they are thrust into positions of fantasy stat categories.
• Still holding onto Barry Bonds “just in case?” LOL
• Evan Longoria is officially with the Rays now. Let the “Desperate Housewives” jokes begin. Don’t rush to pick him up unless you need serious help at 3B though. If you’re in a keeper league, yeah, pick him up.
• Don’t be afraid of guys like Chris Young. Some say “oh, this guy strikes out way too much and hits for a poor average.” Yeah, well, he’ll also hit 40 home runs, steal 25 bases and drive in 100 runs. You’re more than welcome to stick with Carlos Guillen and his .300 batting average, but I’ll take Young any day of the week.

More to come next week for a fantasy update.

The 39-year-old Nomo, who has not pitched in the major leagues since 2005, allowed two runs in three innings during Monday's 15-6 victory over the Giants. "I'm comfortable with the way he's progressing," Royals manager Trey Hillman said.Nomo, the winningest Japanese pitcher in major league history with 123 victories, gave up four hits, struck out one and walked none. He did not pitch last season following elbow surgery in 2006. Eugenio Velez tripled with one out and scored on Randy Winn's double. Rich Aurilia's single scored Winn, but Nomo gave up just one hit after that. "My split-finger didn't go the way I wanted it to go," Nomo said through an interpreter. "I haven't checked on my (fastball) speed. I do not care about the speed."Nomo has a 2.25 ERA in three starts, allowing three runs - two earned - and 10 hits in eight innings with six strikeouts and two walks.

Zito, 0-3 with a 17.18 ERA, allowed eight runs - five earned - five hits and four walks in 3 2-3 innings.

"I was working on a couple of things mechanically," Zito said. "I was just trying to get comfortable with that. Obviously, the ball was up a little bit, more than I would like. I'll just get back to work tomorrow. Fastball command is everything, so I'll be working on that." Mark Teahen homered off Zito, who has given up 17 runs, 14 of them earned, 14 hits and six walks in three starts without any strikeouts."Spring training is an opportunity to implement some things in game situations so that you use the adrenaline that you don't get usually in a practice session, in a bullpen," Zito said. "It was the first time doing it in a game. I think it is important to just stick with it and really get the timing."

Damon Hollins went 3-for-3 and drove in five runs for Kansas City.

Hollins had a bases-clearing double in the third. Ryan Shealy led off the fifth with his team-leading third home run, a drive off Tyler Walker. Justin Leone hit a two-run homer in the seventh off Joel Peralta. The Giants committed four errors, raising their total to 21 in 14 games.

Bob McManaman
The Arizona Republic
Mar. 9, 2008 12:00 AM
 

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Not long ago, Royals fans were wrapping up what appeared to be an extremely dreadful season; afterall, they had no hitting, no team speed, and Larry Sutton was still considered a potential solution at first base with Jeff King getting older by the day.

The year was 1998. Carlos Beltran and Carlos Febles were called up in September and both hit well, and we got a glimpse of what the future may hold. Granted, 1999 saw us take a step backwards in pitching, but the offensive talent was there.

This brings us to our present day. The 2007 Royals were about as lackluster on offense as the 1998 team. We finally have some viable bats in the lineup with Alex Gordon and Billy Butler having a year under their belt. What can we expect from them? It isn't so much what we can expect, but what we need.

1. The Royals need Gordon and Butler to play 155 games at least. They have to always be out there. No exception.

2. They have to both post an OPS of a minimum of .850 for our beloved Royals to be even marginally competitive.

3. They need to produce (RBIs + Runs) 200 runs each.

4. They need to hit 50-60 home runs between the two of them.

This is not an exhaustive list. I'm sure there are plenty of people out there who can come up with even more bullet points. I'm not even getting into the aspect of defense, because we know Gordon is good at third, and Butler will play at first and DH, and by golly, if Mike Sweeney can be a somewhat serviceable option at first, so can Butler.

Is this list fair? Is it fair to expect Butler to score 100 runs? If the Royals want to win and be competitive in the ultra competitive AL Central, he HAS to score 100 runs. The time is gone for evaluation. I hear people say on the radio that "well, the Royals are just playing for 2009 or 2010." SCREW THAT. The Royals should be playing for now. With the young talent on this team right now, there is no excuse for this team to not win 81 games, even in this division. If this group of players, led by Gordon and Butler cannot do this, the Royals need to blow it up and start over.

This is Gordon and Butler's team now. Mike Sweeney used to be the face of the franchise. He's in Oakland now. Gordon and Butler now have the opportunity to cement themselves as the next generation of leaders for this organization. They have to do it this year and show significant improvement or this will be a wasted year.

Can they do it alone? No, they can't, and I'm sure many people will say in kind that Butler and Gordon need help. You're right, they need help, but the fans of this city were very quick to blame the ills of the franchise on Mike Sweeney because he was the leader. Well now we have two leaders. If they don't produce, we can't turn around and blame others. Leaders step up and lead.

Gordon and Butler have to do this. No exception.

GAME SUMMARY
Gil Meche and Hideo Nomo each worked three scoreless innings Wednesday afternoon when the Royals stretched their winning streak to three games with a 3-1 victory over the San Francisco Giants in Scottsdale, Ariz. Meche was dominant in limiting the Giants to two singles while throwing 22 strikes in 31 pitches. He worked two scoreless innings Friday against the Padres in his spring debut.

Nomo had more of a scramble. He stranded three runners in the fourth and two more in the fifth before working a one-two-three sixth inning.

Ryan Shealy announced his return to active duty with a leadoff homer in the third inning against Giants starter Barry Zito. The Royals, 4-3, got their other runs on Justin Huber’s RBI single in the fourth and Shane Costa’s sacrifice fly in the seventh.

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